Outgroups Bichon Chukchi Israel_Natufian Karitiana Kostenki14 MA1 Mbuti.DG Papuan Ust_Ishim Kalash Ulan_IV 0.609 ± 0.051 Iran_Neolithic 0.184 ± 0.066 Andamanese_Onge 0.175 ± 0.041 Han 0.032 ± 0.023I'm not saying this model is definitive by any stretch, but it's more or less statistically sound, with fairly low standard errors for each of the coefficients (0.051, 0.066, 0.041, 0.023 respectively). It's also very similar to the optimal qpAdm model of the Kalasha in Lazaridis et al. 2016. Interestingly, it also matches closely a TreeMix analysis that I posted at my other blog last year, months before I even knew that ancient genomes from Neolithic Iran were on the way (see here). This is what I said in that blog entry:
Both of these models are correct; they just show the same thing in different ways. So if we mesh them together the Kalash and Pathans come out ~65% LNE/EBA European (which includes substantial Caucasus or Caucasus-related ancestry), ~12% ASI, and ~23% something as yet undefined. If I had to guess, I'd say the mystery ~23% was Neolithic admixture from what is now Iran.That's not bad considering how difficult it is to make predictions about ancient population movements without direct evidence from ancient DNA. In any case, it's a lot better than what has been published on the topic in some major journals.